tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5666195730630249633.post5883954486870093776..comments2024-03-25T17:49:41.408-07:00Comments on Salem Breakfast on Bikes: Firehouse Crossing Shows Need for Error Bars; Just Walk, Need for SidewalksSalem Breakfast on Bikeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15618055627843335993noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5666195730630249633.post-26140442462232654932015-02-03T20:18:12.540-08:002015-02-03T20:18:12.540-08:00Very hard to retrospectively validate the estimate...Very hard to retrospectively validate the estimate since we all know that widening roads just Causes the latent demand to converge on the widened facility.<br /><br />Although, this may change in the future, because driving has peaked. Eventually will build things where there is no demand and you will be able to prove that it was overbuilt. But is Robert Moses said just get the damn thing started and you'll never be able to turn it off. The sprawl lobby does not care about your retrospective arguments about overbuilding – they're on to overbuilding the next thing.<br /><br />But in the meantime, it's Heisenberg's uncertainty principle at work:you can't measure the effect of the change without changing the effect.Walkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12731260619465817652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5666195730630249633.post-86325523244943351082015-02-03T12:50:32.998-08:002015-02-03T12:50:32.998-08:00(Huh. Didn't think there was any ambiguity at ...(Huh. Didn't think there was any ambiguity at all: 83 is the delta, the "estimated new daily traffic." Shoot. Sorry that wasn't clear. Have other readers read it as the total number of trips, rather than the increase, generated by the development?)<br /><br />Maybe I should add that in 1991 a traffic count on Commercial right by Hilfiker counted 25,880 trips and in 2013 at the same spot 30,820.<br /><br />83 new trips on top of 30,000 rounds to zero change, well within day-to-day fluctuations in traffic.<br /><br />That's one example of false precision.<br /><br />Another is that maybe the range of estimated new trips is actually -534 to +700, with +83 as some kind of hypothetical mean. What are the magnitudes on either side of +83? And what, then, are "the significant digits"? I bet it's not any more precise than +/-100 (maybe more!).<br /><br />Finally, I wonder about checking actuals against estimated - is there an assessment loop that goes back and checks the projections against reality? When we have these traffic studies that say we need to enlarge an intersection, does the City ever go back and verify the need?<br /><br />And re: "It would be nice to see the City ask for meaningful transportation improvements at every opportunity" Amen!Salem Breakfast on Bikeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15618055627843335993noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5666195730630249633.post-45634559604885849042015-02-02T15:18:12.441-08:002015-02-02T15:18:12.441-08:00I read the 83 trips as the difference between the ...I read the 83 trips as the difference between the trips generated by the pre-existing development and those generated by the new development. The total number of course would be larger.<br /><br />Everyone relies on the ITE manual, which is probably as good at predicting reality as using a dartboard. But its the standard!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5666195730630249633.post-76999174546977044412015-02-02T14:28:56.850-08:002015-02-02T14:28:56.850-08:00When I read the Statesman piece earlier today, my ...When I read the Statesman piece earlier today, my immediate reaction was that the City is once again ignoring an opportunity to improve an important intersection. Where Hilfiker runs into Commercial could certainly be improved for both cars turning north onto Commercial, as well as bikes that wish to do the same. Though certainly not a great comparison, I was reminded of the intersection at Mission and Church, where the City has consistently resisted any urge to improve that pedestrian crossing - even though the hospital is providing them with the perfect opportunity to make improvements! It would be nice to see the City ask for meaningful transportation improvements at every opportunity, rather than simply citing a one dimensional traffic study as evidence that the status quo is sufficient.Jeff Schumacherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08320652216233151117noreply@blogger.com