tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5666195730630249633.post5069841314836017819..comments2024-03-25T17:49:41.408-07:00Comments on Salem Breakfast on Bikes: SKATS Considers Annual Work Plan, Still Struggles with Climate: At the MPOSalem Breakfast on Bikeshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15618055627843335993noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5666195730630249633.post-19636299358703252892020-01-27T20:11:30.691-08:002020-01-27T20:11:30.691-08:00Error bars are not enough to change behavior of a ...Error bars are not enough to change behavior of a planning bureaucracy. What would be required is An administrative rule or statute that the body making a forecast cannot publish a forecast or rely on it until they do a retrospective analysis of past predictions and come up with their error tendencies, which would then be required to be included in any subsequent forecasts.<br /><br />This is what sailors do when dead reckoning: keep track of where they think they are and where they think they’re going and then, whenever they get an accurate external fix, they compare the error between where they thought they were and where they actually turned out to be and they assume that they will continue to make those same errors at the same rates until the next fix is obtained. It forces the sailor to be conservative and avoids deluding yourself because you want the desired outcome to be something favorable so badly but you ignore your own tendency to make mistakes and predictions to give you what you think you desire.<br /><br />Virtually every part of government makes predictions and produces a track record of performance against predicted results, so the same process can be used. <br /><br />I know of no government that actually incorporates that knowledge into its conduct. But it’s especially appropriate in transportation planning, both for budget predictions and for traffic predictions that drive project decisions. If we required agencies to compute their own error rates and apply them to projects Such that they couldn’t produce lowball estimate of costs in order to win voter approval, they suddenly have a whole new interest in actually forecasting reality.Walkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12731260619465817652noreply@blogger.com