Scenario Planning Project Publishes Outline of 2050 Baseline Assumptions

The Scenario Planning project has published a summary of the baseline assumptions and projections for 2050, a "Reference Scenario Documentation."

Our default assumptions won't cut it (we already know this)

You will not be surprised to find that even with ODOT-friendly modeling and assumptions, our current plans are not enough. (See image header at top of blog from 2020's "preferred scenario" in Our Salem!) We are ostensibly on track for a 10% reduction in VMT and we need a 30% reduction.

The analysis is a little odd, though. The zones in the analysis are very coarse with Salem having five zones. Far out South Salem is included in the same zone as the close-in, streetcar-era grid of the area around Bush Park. It would be good to see more discussion of methods. Maybe this is wholly defensible. But it looks like it's not fine-grained enough for truly useful modeling.

Very coarse areas for analysis

But you may recall what an informed critic said nearly a year ago:

it is so high level ("strategic") that it largely tells us what we already know: our existing plans will fall far short of meeting GHG and VMT goals, and if we do lots of things differently (pricing, land use, investing in transportation options, driving cleaner cars, etc.) we can get at least close to those goals.   This is pretty much what we learned more than a decade ago from the STS, Metro's "Climate Smart" plan and efforts by a couple of other MPOs. What scenario planning leaves unanswered - and puts off to some future process - is proposing and evaluating ways that we might actually double or triple non-auto mode share or actually plan for 30% of all housing in climate friendly areas.

This current document is merely the baseline, and further scenarios will be published that suggest greater change, but the level of specificity here in this baseline document suggests the later refinements will be equally coarse and will not meet the critique that "this is pretty much what we [already] learned more than a decade ago."

St. Joseph's to Redevelop former May-McCully House Site

You might recall the shabby rental at 757 Center Street. It was demolished this summer and sold to St. Joseph's parish.

They've initiated a file with the City for a small apartment block, a seven-plex. They call it a "priest residence," but it must be more than merely a parsonage.

Proposed seven-plex

It looks like a terrific addition to Center Street and good infill replacement for an undervalued building that was more historic than we realized, though again it had declined and may not have been worth saving.

• "Fate of 757 Center Street Italianate a little Careless"
• "A Crooked Secretary of State, a Steamboat Magnate, and a House Move: 757 Center Street's Early Story"

The brick cladding immediately calls to mind the Robert Lindsey tower by SAIF as well as the arches on the bank building across from the old City Hall site.

• "Mid-Century Brick Arches Embody Spirit of Old City Hall"
  

Even with three garage bays on the alley, it fits on a residential lot. Seven homes! This is more like the streetcar era main street development in the Historic District downtown. It would not be possible with mandated parking minimums.

When the file is complete and there is more of a narrative for the approvals process there might be more to say. But at first glance, this looks neat. More of this, please!

Three Building Centenaries: Security Building, Ike Box, Crystal Gardens

Some of the lesser buildings downtown are celebrating 100th anniversaries this year, two of them even this week. I'm not sure there's any great significance to squeeze from them, they're just very ordinary buildings, so here are some scattered notes.

Hughes Building today aka "Security Building,"
(Legacy Real Estate)

The building today known as the "Security Building" was first known as the Hughes Building. On its second floor the New Salem Hotel opened the first week in December of 1924. It was on the site of a cluster of wood-framed buildings representing a later phase for our "Chinatown" and represents some level of displacement and gentrification. Additionally, in 1924 it was adjacent to the Oregon Electric Depot, whose tracks ran up High Street at this time. But it was a little late to take full advantage of the proximity to rail!

December 9th, 1924

Frank Bligh owned the hotel, and his father T. G. Bligh had died a month earlier in a crash near Grand Ronde on the way back from the coast, where Bligh was building a summer cottage. (Blighs highlighted in yellow on the clips.)