Thursday, January 23, 2014

The More Paper: Auto Boom is Dead!

The "More Paper" says:  The Auto Boom is Dead.

From today's USA Today insert
Will it reconsider something in light of this?

May 2013 local editorial
The boom article indulges in a bit of "he-said, she-said" journalism, and what it doesn't reproduce is this:

Trend-line mania:  61 out of 61 projections were too high.
Also, the same slope on the trend line always!
Those who rely on the old narrative, that once you "grow up" and "get good jobs and form households" and get cars and drive more, also rely on faulty modeling.

N3B has other more local examples:

N3B:  Population Growth  does not equal driving growth!

N3B:  Modeling never recalibrates for reality
Cars will continue to be an important part of the total transportation mix, but as part of reassessing our transportation toolboxes, folks increasingly realize they are expensive and aren't always the best tool for the job.

Transportation planning needs to come to terms with 21st century patterns, and not continue to behave as if it's still the 20th century.

Autos may not be bust yet, but the boom is done.

(By the way, the City Club has a relevant talk tomorrow, "Peak Oil and Ponzi Finance: LAST GASPS OF A TERMINAL ECONOMY?")

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