Since 1999, in 61 out of 61 projections of vehicle miles traveled sent to Congress by the US Department of Transportation, the actual miles traveled came in way under the projections.
61 out of 61! 100% error rate!
|Trend-line mania: 61 out of 61 projections were too high.|
Also, the same slope on the trend line always!
Read more at the State Smart Transport Initiative. (And from 2012, an animated gif on traffic forecasting at Sightline.)
Update, January 9th
|N3B: Population Growth does not equal driving growth!|
January 22nd - And another great chart from N3B.
October 31st -
Here's an interesting chart of GDP projections and another mismatch with reality!
|from a note on "Secular Stagnation" by Larry Summers|