This City is hosting an open house tomorrow:
Wednesday, December 7, 2011It will have information on:
Airport Terminal Building
2990 25th Street SE, Salem Oregon
Master Plan StatusHere's the preferred expansion alignment:
Environmental Process Overview
Runway Alternatives Considered
and Next Steps
It's difficult not to be cynical about the "need" for this. This is a multi-million dollar project and the money could much more usefully be spent on something sustainable.
To get a sense for some of the "optimistic" thinking behind it, take a gander at these excerpts.
The forecasts assume a compound growth rate based on past history. But with increasing petroleum costs both from peak oil scarcity and from a likely carbon tax, past growth is not likely to be duplicated.
And indeed in comparing projections from 1997, even the study's authors find that the past is not a good guide!
But nevertheless, here's a table of just insane exponential growth that's actually included in the study! They say outright that it is not the preferred growth model, but if it is so clearly unmoored from plausible reality, why include it?
This is a bike blog and it's just not possible to read all the airport stuff closely. Hopefully someone who is on the committee or works in an airport-related industry can comment and clarify.
(I scanned and cherry-picked the most egregious examples of craziness; they may not be representative. Still, I think they are adequate to show that the projections are at the very least on the high, high, upper-end of the most "optimistic" confidence bar. It seems impossible that this represents a sober analysis for a future with diminished expectations.)
The study documents can be found here. The Statesman piece, which omits any cost estimates, is here.